Tag Archives: Middle East

Israel Preparing ‘Christmas Surprise’ for Iran?

Israel Preparing ‘Christmas Surprise’ for Iran

First Published: 11/10/2011, 10:24 AM

With an International Atomic Energy Agency report to be issued this week that will state, officials said Wednesday, that Iran is clearly working towards developing a nuclear weapons program, speculation has turned to possible military actions by Israel or other western countries to prevent Tehran from getting “the bomb.” On Thursday, the British Daily Mail newspaper said that an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities could come as soon as December 25, the day the Christian world celebrates Christmas.

Image

the only feasible route is the direct one over Iraq. Both Turkey and Saudi Arabia have well-equipped air forces and though neither nation is a big fan of Iran, I don’t think their governments could allow Israel to fly unimpeded thru their airspace – too many repercussions within their own populations. Allowing the Israelis to fly over Iraq would tell the world that the US approved the attack on a Muslim nation with untold potential consequences for any US troops still in Iraq at the time, never mind other US interests in that nation – you know – oil. That could be one reason for Israel to wait until all US forces have withdrawn from Iraq.

The fear-mongering begins, although not for the first time as one will note when they read the date the map posted here, was published.

Israel Preparing to Strike Iran
Posted on 4 December 2008

Oil price to hit $175-$200 if Israel attacks Iran: analysts
Please note the contrast between the headline, the first paragraph and the second paragraph

Oil prices could surge to $175-200 per barrel if Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear facilities, leading to the closure of an important oil route, according to market observers. Tensions between the two arch foes have escalated after the International Atomic Energy Agency reported it had ‘credible’ evidence of Tehran’s nuclear weapons plan.In a survey of oil traders, Washington D.C.-based Rapidan Group said that participants expected an $11 rise in the price of a barrel in the immediate aftermath of an Israeli attack.
(…)
“Iran is the most important latent threat in the oil market,” Robert McNally, head of the Rapidan Group, told Platts Energy last week, partly because previous threats against Iran over the years have not materialised, and also as Arab Spring has stolen the limelight from Iran during the past ten months.

McNally noted that oil traders would not have ignored the alleged-Iranian plot to kill the Saudi ambassador had there been a Republican U.S. President, rather than Democrat Barack Obama, despite his hawkish stance on Iran.

Interesting comment about oil-traders ‘ignoring’ the alleged Iranian plot because the President is Barack Obama. One might read that as saying the oil traders are ignoring it because they know Obama is more competent and more capable of handling the situation than any Republican – otherwise, why ignore it? There could be other reasons as a Forbes article notes

At least for the time being, viewing higher oil prices through the prism of armed conflict with Iran is incorrect.

The reason for the rise in oil price is not the geography of Iran but the geography of Cushing, Oklahoma.
(…)
Cushing is the price settlement point for West Texas Intermediate Sweet Crude Oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). This price benchmark is used for oil in the United States.

As the production for Canadian oil sands has increased, Cushing has become a major choke point. Cushing has turned out to be a colossal error in oil infrastructure planning.

Will speculators drive up the price of oil in anticipation of an Israeli attack? Probably

Map came from one of those THE END TIMES ARE APPROACHING!!! websites of the type so loved by folks like preacher John Hagee and his ilk.

Advertisements